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THEME OF THE PUBLIC LECTURE
PRESENTED BY DOCTOR OF SOCIOLOGICAL SCIENCES E. A. AFONIN
AT V. I. VERNADSKY NATIONAL LIBRARY
ON OCTOBER 22, 1998

THEME OF THE LECTURE: «SOCIAL RELATIVISM OR
SOCIOLOGY OF THE TRANSIENT TIME OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT»

1. CYCLICITY OF NATURE AND NATURAL PROCESSES

1.1. Cycles «cosmic», «biological», «social» (by the terminology

of P. Sorokin).

1.2. Cycles of development of a personality in ontogenesis (by

the generalization of D. Feldshtein)

1.3. Experimental confirmation of the hypothesis of

evolutionary changes of «sociopsychotype» (on materials of

the complex of sociological and social-psychological

studies performed at the system of bodies of the State

Safety of the USSR in the second half of the 80s and during

elections in 1994 and 1998 in Ukraine).

1.4. Epochal social-historical cycle (author’s conception).

2. PROBLEM OF MACRO (INTEGRAL) INDICES IN SOCIOLOGY

2.1. Principle of L. Pasteur – P. Curie.

2.2. Societal processes, states, features. Societal indices

(by O. Donchenko).

2.3. Statistical effects of «demographical transition».

2.4. Methods of mathematical statistics and their use in social

studies during the transient time of social development.

3. SPECIFIC SOCIOLOGICAL (MONITORING) STUDIES IN UKRAINE: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS (UKRAINE, RUSSIA, AND BELORUSSIA)

4. FACTOR OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND ITS INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL-HISTORICAL PROCESSES. IS A SOCIAL BURST PROBABLE
IN UKRAINE ?

5. APPLIED ASPECTS OF THE NEW APPROACH.

Appendix 2

TEXT OF THE INFORMATION EXTENDED DURING THE WORK
OF THE 65TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL

FEDERATION OF LIBRARIAN ASSOCIATIONS
(IFLA 99, BANGKOK, THAILAND)
AND THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF

CORRESPONDENTS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTER OF PARLIAMENT

STUDIES AND DOCUMENTATION
(ECPRD-CORRESPONDENTS

CONFERENCE, BERN, SWITZERLAND)

Dear colleagues !

The group of scientists, representatives of nongovernmental nonprofit organizations such as the Ukrainian Social Innovation Society, Atlantic Council of Ukraine, and Librarian Department of the Ukrainian Parliament, has begun the initiative study in the context of the sociology of history, which covers the period of two millennia (AD).

PROJECT IS CONDITIONED BY:

* globalization of transformational processes;

* objectivity, irreversibility and cardinal character of current

social changes;

* noncorrespondence of the existing ideas to new conditions

of social development;

* growth of danders which acquire extreme forms during the

the transient period;

* decrease in efficiency of the activity of global, regional,

political, economic, and other international and national

institutions.

Now once again, we are faced with the urgent need to basically reinterpret the historical development, to introduce corrections to the existing ideas as for a periodization of the history, and to create efficient prognostic models of social development. Motives to the realization of these urgent needs become, in fact, the basis of our research initiative.

MAIN AIM of the basic stage of the research project is the development of an applied model of «universal epochal cycle» as a means of social analysis and prognostication. A further work on the project will be open and interdisciplinary due to the wide participation of experts in the fields of political science, economy, right, psychology, ethnology, studies of religion. language, arts, etc.

RESEARCH PLANS will be carried out on a wide historical material, which represents 50 countries of the world community chosen by geographical, cultural-religious, and demographical signs. The sampling includes 20 countries of Europe, 15 of Asia, 3 of North America, 4 of Latin America, and Australia.

The research plan foresees the use of modern methodologies, methods, and technologies. In particular, the use of Internet will be aimed at:

* telecommunication of participants;

* publication of running results of the study;

* diagnostics, etc.

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